The Contingency dashboard allows estimators to create and evaluate one or more risk buffered or “contingency” solutions based on the current solution of a project in the Estimation stage and adjustments made to uncertainty sliders for the inputs to the current solution.
Though the Contingency
Dashboard is a type of project dashboard, the way it works is different enough
from Estimation or Closeout dashboards to require some additional explanation.
Estimate and Closeout dashboards are designed to analyze and compare existing
solutions created using the Estimation or Closeout project pages. The
Contingency dashboard displays a single current solution for the Estimation
project you’re currently working with, but also allows estimators to create
new, risk buffered solutions using building blocks created and maintained by
the Back Office:
•Contingency Profiles are standardized groups of risk buffering settings
that can be applied to any existing estimate solution. There are two types of
contingency profile:
o Target Probability
profiles use Monte Carlo simulation to create a distribution of potential
project outcomes, allowing estimators to evaluate and select higher assurance
(risk buffered) “commit-to” values for various management metrics.
o Fixed Percentage
profiles add a fixed buffer (example, 20% on effort, 10% on schedule) to an
existing estimate.
•Contingency Dashboard views are public sets of charts and reports
in the Contingency dashboard that are configured to display various contingency
profiles supplied by the Back Office. All estimators need to do is decide which
solution from an existing Estimation project they wish to risk buffer and make
that solution current. When they open the Contingency dashboard, the charts and
reports will show both the current solution (with no risk buffer) and one or
more risk buffered solutions calculated by applying contingency profiles to the
current solution.
The next sections describe charts and reports available for use on Contingency dashboards. Contingency charts and reports fall into two categories:
•Charts/Reports that show Current Solution uncertainty. Probability
charts and reports are only available via the Contingency dashboard. Moreover,
they are the only type of Contingency chart that cannot display contingency
solutions calculated by choosing a contingency profile. This reflects the
fact that probability chart data is associated with the Current Solution and
uncertainty sliders. Values shown on these reports are used when you
select a Target Probability Contingency Profile to display on Contingency time
series, milestone, summary, or trend charts and reports.
Note: current
solution uncertainty (and the corresponding probability chart metric data) is
only relevant in relation to target probability profiles.
Uncertainty is not used to calculate Fixed Percentage contingency
solutions.
•Charts/Reports that show Contingency Profiles/Solutions. The remaining charts and reports in the Contingency Dashboard allow users to select a single Contingency profile and display the resulting Contingency Solution (either by itself or as a comparison to the Current Solution). These charts can display both Target Probability and Fixed Percentage contingency solutions. The profile you select will be used to dynamically calculate a new solution that meets the goals specified by the profile’s resource and schedule goal values.
Below are examples of Contingency dashboard charts and chart options. Probability charts are the only chart type not available on other project dashboards. The remaining contingency dashboard chart options are covered in the general topics devoted to time series, trend, milestone, and summary charts and reports.