Monte Carlo Simulation

When using the Contingency Dashboard, Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate a distribution (ranging from 1-99% probability) of likely solutions, given the current solution values from a project in the estimation stage and the uncertainty surrounding key estimation inputs (supplied via the uncertainty slider bars). During the Monte Carlo simulation, estimation inputs (size, PI, labor rate) are varied randomly about their expected (current solution) values within statistical limits set by their respective standard deviations.  One hundred solutions are calculated by selecting solution parameters from a normal distribution around the average or expected value.  The resulting distribution is displayed on Probability charts and reports and is used to calculate risk buffers for target probability contingency solutions.